Thursday, February 07, 2008

The prah-maries

Interesting analysis on ElectoralVote.com yesterday:
  1. Obama did especially well in "white" states like Idaho and Kansas -- but this doesn't necessarily mean he's crossed the racial divide; it's because most of the states in which he did are caucus states, which compared to primary states have low overall turnout but favor candidates like Obama with a "smaller, but extremely active and loyal following."
  2. McCain achieved a majority of the votes in only three states: New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York, none of which he has a prayer of winning in November, no matter who the Democrat is. So although he may yet get the nomination, he will be largely campaigning in states where the Republicans actually wanted somebody else.
  3. Huckabee won the South and is staying in the race hoping to be named VP on the ticket, which might unify the GOP. But Huckabee is very unpopular with independents and Democrats, so the Dems will insinuate that "McCain is an old guy who has had malignant melanona repeatedly. He's going to die in office and then you get President Huckabee? You want President Huckabee?"
In case you just can't get enough of the Obama vs. Clinton issue, here's a piece in The New Yorker.

Voter turnout here in Massachusetts was amazing. On Tuesday morning WBUR (local NPR affiliate) predicted a record turnout of 1.3 million voters. The next day they reported it was 1.7 million. This article says 26.6% of registered voters in the state voted, compared to 22.4% in 1980, the last big year like this. Nationwide for the entire primary season, we're on pace to break the all-time records of 1972.

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